2009年中国东北夏季低温及其与前期海气系统变化的联系   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

沈柏竹  刘实  廉毅  封国林  李尚锋  龚志强 《气象学报》2011,69(2):320-333

依据中国东北地区拥有百年地面观测记录的长春和哈尔滨测站气温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和英国哈得来中心海表温度资料,揭示2009年东北地区发生的迄今已有15年没有出现的夏季低温事件成因.结果表明:发生东北夏季低温时的水平和垂直环流结构均为低值系统,东北冷涡异常活动是其最直接的影响因子;有利的年代际变化背景是,哈尔滨和长春6-8月平均气温年代际尺度(≥9 a)的振荡值1999-2008年约-O.8℃/10 a,显著低于全球变暖东北区域响应的线性增暖值0.2℃/10 a(1961-2000年),与长春和哈尔滨夏季气温呈正相关的前一年冬季太平洋极涡面积指数年代际振荡亦呈显著下降趋势.与1994-2008年东北夏季高温的500 hPa平均环流距平场显著不同,北极涛动呈强的负位相分布,东北亚、阿留申和北大西洋上空为显著负距平区;2009年前一年冬季与明显低温的1972年的前一年冬季北太平洋涛动均呈显著的负位相,春季仍持续,且2009年前一年冬季赤道中东太平洋SSTA为拉尼娜位相,2009年春季明显减弱;2009年6-7月夏季东北冷涡活动异常强与4-5月500 hPa北太平洋地区超长波扰动转为定常波扰动槽有关;SVD和谐波分析表明,北太平洋涛动的异常位相不仅是东北夏季气温变化的重要前期信号,还是大气中除了天气尺度的混沌分量外可提取的一种行星尺度稳定分量.  相似文献   

基于综合评价算法的雷电灾害易损度区划模型研究     

曾金全  张烨方  王颖波 《气象》2011,37(12):1595-1600

选取落雷密度、雷灾发生率、雷灾经济损失率及雷灾生命损伤率为评价雷电灾害易损性的指标,运用解析几何的直线方程对指标数据进行了标准化,引入层次分析法对评价指标数据真实性程度对结果的影响进行了修正,采用聚类分析方法对总易损度值进行更为合理科学的区划分级,并以福建省为例对新模型做了实例计算。结果表明,综合评价算法模型在关系计算、级别区划、结果分析等方面体现出一定的数学优势,能较细致、完整地反映出雷灾易损度区划指标之间的联系及各指标因素对雷灾易损度的综合影响关系。  相似文献   

云地闪初次闪击算法的设计     

胡胜  蔡安安  梁建茵  谌志刚  黄晓梅 《热带气象学报》2011,27(6):853-859

首先介绍了闪电形成的概念模型,在此基础上提取反射率因子、环境等温层高度、最大反射率因子的对应垂直高度变化和垂直积分液态含水量来构建广东云地闪初生算法.其次,利用2007年广东新一代雷达和闪电定位系统收集的大量强对流资料,对广东云地闪初生算法进行应用评估.对于138个风暴样本,CSI为69％,POD为89％,FAR为25％,空报较多.利用雷达垂直剖面资料分析误差产生的原因.算法漏报有两种情况:一是由于雷达天顶盲区的影响,使得该区域内的风暴垂直探测严重不足;二是环境等温层高度的估算存在困难,实际操作中选择了探空资料-15℃层的平均高度值.空报的主要原因在于一些风暴虽然达到或超过了反射率因子阈值,但是其强反射率因子核区在垂直方向上伸展不够,相对较薄,说明垂直运动不够充分,难以将水凝物输送到较高的环境等温层高度上,从而不会产生闪电.最后,根据误差分析对云地闪初生算法进行改进.一方面增加反射率垂直梯度因子的判别,减少因风暴垂直发展不足所造成的算法空报;另一方面,适当降低环境等温层的高度,选择7 000 m替代此前的7 757 m.再次利用前面构建的强对流资料集,评估算法改进后的效果.改进后的算法在一定程度上控制了空报率,空报单体由此前的31个减少到23个,FAR由25％降低至19％,但CSI则从69％增加到74％.  相似文献   

基于全天空极光图像方向能量表征方法的极光事件分类          下载免费PDF全文

张军 胡泽骏王倩  梁继民 《极地研究》2015,27(3):255-263

针对基于全天空极光图像的极光事件自动分类问题,提出一种基于方向能量二元编码重组表征的自动分类方法。首先,通过对多个方向上能量分解来描述极光事件中的局部纹理和各个方向上的运动信息,并且结合分块策略获得极光事件的全局形态信息;然后,借鉴一种二元编码重组的方式对多个方向能量进行融合,从而使得极光事件的表征具有同时表征局部纹理、全局形态和运动信息的能力。该表征方法完全不依赖于极光事件的长度,可用于表征不同持续时间的极光事件,并且不需要复杂的训练过程。利用最近邻和支撑向量机分类器分别对从中国北极黄河站拍摄到的极光图像中挑选的特定极光事件进行自动分类,结果表明,与其他两种典型的动态纹理描述方法相比,本文所提出的表征方法结合最近邻分类器,得到了最好的分类效果,能有效用于极光事件的分析,为海量数据中的极光事件自动分类提供了一种新方法。  相似文献   

2009-2013年普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量的年际变化及其与全球气候事件的关系     

扈传昱  韩正兵  孙维萍  陈际雨 《海洋与湖沼》2015,46(2):285-294

利用中国南极科学考察期间获得的颗粒物样品,对南大洋普里兹湾海域水体中生物硅的含量分布及年际变化情况进行了分析。研究结果显示:在2013年夏季普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量在0.38—8.62μmol/dm3之间变化,平均为1.55±1.86μmol/dm3。生物硅在67°S以南湾内区域表层水体中的含量明显高于67°S以北的湾外区域,最大值出现在普里兹湾陆架区,生物因子是表层水体生物硅含量分布的主控因子。根据不同年份即25、26、27、28、29次南极科学考察期间获取的数据研究显示,普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量存在明显的年际差异。历史数据分析结果表明,气候事件对普里兹湾海冰变化有明显的影响,因而对相应年份该海域浮游植物数量和种群结构也会产生一定的影响,从而导致表层水体中生物硅含量的年际差异。  相似文献   

湖北神农架年纹层石笋记录的YD与8.2 ka事件转型模式研究     

王权  刘殿兵  汪永进  邓朝 《沉积学报》2015,33(6):1140-1148

基于青天洞两支年纹层石笋QT16和QT40高分辨率δ18O序列,重建了Younger Dryas(YD)和8.2 ka期间季风突变细节过程。结果显示,亚洲季风强度在YD和8.2 ka事件内部并不稳定。在年层时标控制下,季风强度在YD早期最弱,随后缓慢上升,其间叠加三次百年尺度次级振荡;在8.2 ka期间,季风强度整体较弱,内部出现一次持续40 a左右的强季风事件,曲线形态类似"W"结构。运用"方差法"和"RAMPFIT"法分析显示,在两事件开始,季风衰减均表现出缓慢特征(转型时间占据事件整体历时的40%~50%),但在结束期间季风迅速增强,相似变化模式得到了同区其他石笋记录的支持。与格陵兰冰芯记录对比发现,尽管高、低纬气候在两事件结束时段变化特征基本类似,但在两事件开始,亚洲季风衰减过程却显著长于北高纬气温变化。与低纬记录对比显示,热带水文变化在两事件开始阶段均表现出与亚洲季风基本一致的演化趋势,表明亚洲季风的突变过程可能具有鲜明的低纬特色。这些细节差异若得到更多高分辨率地质记录验证,将有利于进一步认识亚洲季风对突变事件的响应方式及其动力学机制。  相似文献   

The Paleoceanography during the Time with High δ13C of Phanerozoic marine carbonates     

Huang Sijing  Li Xiaoning  Wu Wenhui  Zhang Meng  Hu Zuowei  Liu Sibing  Huang Keke  Zhong Yijiang 《地球科学进展》2015,30(11):1185-1197

Carbon isotopic composition of marine carbonates is a record for various important geological events in the process of earth development and evolution. The carbonates of Carboniferous, Permian and Triassic, as the transition from Paleozoic to Mesozoic-Cenozoic have very high ¹³C value. Taking this as the main point, and combined with the oxygen, strontium isotopic composition in carbonates, distribution of carbonate basin area through geologic time, the correlation of carbon isotopic composition of marine carbonates to sea level change, organic carbon burial flux, exchange of CO₂ content in atmosphere and ocean, and long cycle evolution of the earth ecosystems were approached. The results are shown as follows: ①The interval of ¹³C >3‰ during Phanerozoic was concentrated in Carboniferous, Permian and the beginning of Triassic, but the beginning of Triassic was characterized by higher frequency and larger fluctuations in ¹³C value during a short time, whereas the Carboniferous-Permian presented a continuously stable high ¹³C value, indicating a larger amount of organic carbon accumulation in this time interval. Relatively high ¹⁸O values during this time was also observed, showing a long time of glaciations and cold climate, which suggest a connection among rapid organic carbon burial, cold climate, as well as pCO₂ and pO₂ states of atmosphere. ②The over consumption of atmosphere CO₂ by green plants during the time with high ¹³C of seawater forced CO₂ being transferred from ocean to atmosphere for the balance, but the decrease in the seawater amount and water column pressure caused by the global cooling could weaken dissolution capacity of CO₂ in seawater and carbon storage of marine carbonates, and also reduce the carbonate sedimentary rate and decrease the carbonate basin area globally from Devonian to Carboniferous and Permian. During the middle-late Permian carbonate was widely replaced by siliceous sediments even though in shallow carbonate platform, which resulted in the decrease of marine invertebrates, suggesting the Permian chert event should be global. ③The Phanerozoic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr trend of seawater showed a sharp fall in Permian and drop to a minimum at the end of the Permian, indicting input of strontium from the submarine hydrothermal systems (mantle flux). Such process should accompany with a supplement of CO₂ from deep earth to atmosphere and ocean system, but the process associated with widespread volcanism and rises of earth’s surface temperature pricked up the mass extinction during the time of end Permian. ④Cold climate and increase of continental icecap volume, the amalgamation of northern Africa and Laurentia continentals were the main reasons responsible for the sea level drop, but the water consumption result from the significantly increased accumulation of organic carbon should also be one of the reasons for the sea level drop on the order of tens of meters. ⑤The mass extinction at the end Permian was an inevitable event in the process of earth system adjustment. It was difficult for marine invertebrates to survive because of the continuously rapid burial of organic carbon, and of the decrease of sea water amount and its dissolution ability to CO₂. At last, at the end of Paleozoic, the supplement of CO₂ to atmosphere and ocean by widely magma activities resulted in a high temperature of earth surface and intensified mass extinction.  相似文献   

DO4事件的精确定年及亚旋回特征: 来自福建龙岩仙云洞石笋的证据^*          下载免费PDF全文

车印平  肖海燕  姜修洋  蔡炳贵 《古地理学报》2020,22(2):377-384

DO4事件(Dansgaard-Oeschger event 4,简称DO4事件)是发生在MIS3阶段后期的1次明显升温事件。根据福建仙云洞石笋(编号XYⅢ-28)300~500 mm层段6个高精度²³⁰Th年龄和188个氧同位素数据,获得了29.13~27.94 kyrB.P.时期平均分辨率达7 yr的东亚夏季风强度的演变过程数据。该石笋 δ¹⁸O 记录的DO4事件起止时间为28.83±0.06~28.46±0.06 kyr B.P.,持续时间为0.37±0.06 kyr。相对基于GICC05年层计数时标NGRIP冰芯 δ¹⁸O 记录在DO4开始阶段的突变特征,仙云洞石笋记录的DO4事件开始阶段 δ¹⁸O 值在145±60 yr内偏负0.4‰,表现为相对缓慢的变化特征,这说明仙云洞所处的中国东南沿海地区有可能受到热带低纬海气耦合的影响。此外,仙云洞石笋 δ¹⁸O 记录揭示了在DO4事件内部及附近存在一系列的百年至十年际尺度夏季风增强事件,与格陵兰冰芯 δ¹⁸O 记录、阿拉伯海海盆反照率记录的DO4事件亚旋回结构在定年误差范围内相对应,表明东亚夏季风强度与北高纬温度变化和ITCZ(赤道辐合带)位置移动在百年至十年际尺度上存在紧密的联系。  相似文献   

The June 2013 Alberta catastrophic flooding event – part 2: fine‐scale precipitation and associated features          下载免费PDF全文

B. Kochtubajda  R. E. Stewart  S. Boodoo  J. M. Thériault  Y. Li  A. Liu  C. Mooney  R. Goodson  K. Szeto 《水文研究》2016,30(26):4917-4933

Data obtained from a variety of sources including the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, weather radars, weather stations and operational numerical weather model analyses were used to address the evolution of precipitation during the June 2013 southern Alberta flood. The event was linked to a mid‐level closed low pressure system to the west of the region and a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This configuration brought warm, moist unstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an abundance of lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereas the northern parts were devoid of lightning. Initially, precipitation rates were high (extreme 15‐min rainfall rates up to 102 mm h^?1 were measured) but decreased to lower values as the precipitation shifted to long‐lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiform precipitation components were affected by the topography. Similar flooding events, such as June 2002, have occurred over this region although the 2002 event was colder and precipitation was not associated with substantial convection over southwest Alberta. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept          下载免费PDF全文

James O. Knighton  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3788-3803

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献